Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 24.211531 28.749727 34.414769 42.205769 52.988657 67.977112 91.614963
2024-12-15 19.197418 24.378723 31.603652 43.022236 62.002362 95.679758 171.661961
2024-12-22 15.910133 20.950572 28.427375 41.270380 65.345595 116.599087 277.357009
2024-12-29 14.034315 19.019770 26.795173 41.131333 71.115082 147.915727 514.004210
2025-01-05 12.263296 16.905793 24.368604 38.751173 71.084919 165.789985 830.312174
2025-01-12 10.765323 14.999516 21.936823 35.693160 68.145947 172.753514 1207.966971
2025-01-19 9.652447 13.574016 20.107230 33.395437 66.158001 182.022512 1922.077360
2025-01-26 9.860600 14.306280 22.147967 39.599729 90.416528 359.581397 NaN
2025-02-02 9.577882 14.166605 22.557168 42.372196 107.386566 602.988307 NaN
2025-02-09 8.799527 13.078903 20.975991 39.916742 104.121540 653.063786 NaN
2025-02-16 8.508143 12.826397 21.012742 41.577472 118.721038 1118.915509 NaN
2025-02-23 8.079592 12.283522 20.383063 41.316520 125.149791 1645.232776 NaN
2025-03-02 7.664380 11.758130 19.784350 41.187089 133.571081 2860.985131 NaN
2025-03-09 7.357353 11.408617 19.518896 41.985993 148.748784 8122.087261 NaN
2025-03-16 6.909839 10.755456 18.511551 40.296461 147.638864 13757.015233 NaN
2025-03-23 6.610617 10.362791 18.036611 40.162319 157.195001 101952.479860 NaN
2025-03-30 6.200890 9.728959 16.956852 37.864815 149.459579 157211.203476 NaN
2025-04-06 5.779285 9.050617 15.727955 34.909366 135.337681 56995.514773 NaN
2025-04-13 5.432152 8.501337 14.757848 32.685923 125.916487 41645.502788 NaN
2025-04-20 5.607641 8.978961 16.171638 38.684182 190.641261 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 5.562015 9.013440 16.558029 41.359138 238.701608 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.274546 8.539621 15.663341 38.990210 222.090725 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.191684 8.479344 15.781601 40.592697 263.332469 NaN NaN